What moved in motor over the last 6 weeks, and why
Why this matters to IIB. Some patterns only show when all 25 insurers are seen together. Each week this briefing finds the biggest unusual changes in claims and policies issued, explains them and asks someone to own each alert.
Briefing for the week ending 4 October 2026. Each state and vehicle class is compared with the usual level for this time of year.
Telangana two-wheeler claims up 68% against the usual level
In the 6 weeks to 4 October 2026 the demo sample had 2,469 motor claims. That is 2.2% above the usual level for this time of year. This change is small and may be noise. Policies issued, new and renewed, were 2.7% below the usual level in the 6 weeks to 27 September. The file checks held back 1,310 policy rows from these weeks, more than the shortfall, so this fall is likely missing data, not lost sales.
Telangana two-wheeler claims were 77 in the last 6 weeks, against a usual level of about 46 for this time of year. That is 68% above usual, which is very unusual. By claim type, theft claims were 19 against about 3, own damage claims were 52 against about 38 and third party claims were 6 against about 5. 13 insurers have more claims than usual. The biggest single rise is 5 claims, at Insurer J.
Also worth watching. Haryana two-wheeler policies issued were down 10%, which is unusual. Part of this drop is likely missing data, not lost sales. The file checks held back 53 rows of Insurer K's September policies file in Haryana. Jharkhand two-wheeler policies issued were down 14%, which is very unusual. Part of this drop is likely missing data, not lost sales. The file checks held back 24 rows of Insurer K's September policies file in Jharkhand.
Madhya Pradesh two-wheeler claims were up 20%. Madhya Pradesh private car claims were up 26%. These are within normal variation.
1 movement passed the alert level. Please record an outcome on each alert below.
No AI was used for this text. The template was given the 5 biggest changes and the totals for the demo sample. Insurer code names only. No personal data. State totals only for this role.
Show the figures the briefing was written from
{
"briefing_week": "28 September 2026 to 4 October 2026",
"claims_period": "24 August 2026 to 4 October 2026",
"policies_period": "17 August 2026 to 27 September 2026",
"policy_figures_weeks_behind_claims": 1,
"sample_totals": {
"claims_last_6_weeks": 2469,
"claims_usual_level": 2416,
"claims_change_pct": 2.2,
"claims_direction": "up",
"claims_in_briefing_week": 424,
"policies_issued_last_6_weeks": 37820,
"policies_issued_usual_level": 38889,
"policies_issued_change_pct": 2.7,
"policies_issued_direction": "down",
"policies_issued_means": "new and renewed policies",
"claims_how_unusual": "normal variation",
"policies_issued_how_unusual": "very unusual",
"policy_rows_held_back_by_the_file_checks": 1310,
"comparison": "every change is against the usual level for this time of year, not the previous period"
},
"insurers_in_total": 25,
"movements": [
{
"rank": 1,
"state": "Telangana",
"vehicle_class": "two-wheeler",
"measure": "claims",
"direction": "up",
"last_6_weeks": 77,
"usual_level": 46,
"change_pct": 68,
"how_unusual": "very unusual",
"alert": true,
"period": "24 August 2026 to 4 October 2026",
"drivers": {
"claim_type": [
{
"claim_type": "theft",
"last_6_weeks": 19,
"usual_level": 3,
"above_usual": 16
},
{
"claim_type": "own damage",
"last_6_weeks": 52,
"usual_level": 38,
"above_usual": 14
},
{
"claim_type": "third party",
"last_6_weeks": 6,
"usual_level": 5,
"above_usual": 1
}
],
"insurer": [
{
"insurer": "Insurer J",
"last_6_weeks": 6,
"usual_level": 1,
"above_usual": 5
},
{
"insurer": "Insurer F",
"last_6_weeks": 8,
"usual_level": 3,
"above_usual": 5
},
{
"insurer": "Insurer S",
"last_6_weeks": 8,
"usual_level": 4,
"above_usual": 4
}
]
},
"insurers_with_a_rise": 13,
"biggest_single_insurer": {
"insurer": "Insurer J",
"above_usual": 5
},
"theft": {
"last_6_weeks": 19,
"usual_level": 3,
"times_usual_level": 6
}
},
{
"rank": 2,
"state": "Haryana",
"vehicle_class": "two-wheeler",
"measure": "policies issued",
"direction": "down",
"last_6_weeks": 786,
"usual_level": 869,
"change_pct": 10,
"how_unusual": "unusual",
"alert": false,
"period": "17 August 2026 to 27 September 2026",
"drivers": {
"cover_type": [
{
"cover_type": "comprehensive",
"last_6_weeks": 385,
"usual_level": 437,
"below_usual": 52
},
{
"cover_type": "third party only",
"last_6_weeks": 341,
"usual_level": 377,
"below_usual": 36
}
],
"insurer": [
{
"insurer": "Insurer K",
"last_6_weeks": 42,
"usual_level": 66,
"below_usual": 24
},
{
"insurer": "Insurer Y",
"last_6_weeks": 44,
"usual_level": 56,
"below_usual": 12
},
{
"insurer": "Insurer S",
"last_6_weeks": 47,
"usual_level": 56,
"below_usual": 9
}
]
},
"insurers_with_a_fall": 17,
"biggest_single_insurer": {
"insurer": "Insurer K",
"below_usual": 24
},
"held_back": [
{
"insurer": "Insurer K",
"file": "September policies file",
"rows_held_back_in_state": 53,
"up_to_this_many_in_this_movement": 36,
"insurer_shortfall": 24,
"meaning": "likely missing data, not lost sales"
}
]
},
{
"rank": 3,
"state": "Madhya Pradesh",
"vehicle_class": "two-wheeler",
"measure": "claims",
"direction": "up",
"last_6_weeks": 116,
"usual_level": 96,
"change_pct": 20,
"how_unusual": "normal variation",
"alert": false,
"period": "24 August 2026 to 4 October 2026",
"drivers": {
"claim_type": [
{
"claim_type": "own damage",
"last_6_weeks": 88,
"usual_level": 72,
"above_usual": 16
},
{
"claim_type": "third party",
"last_6_weeks": 14,
"usual_level": 9,
"above_usual": 5
}
],
"insurer": [
{
"insurer": "Insurer W",
"last_6_weeks": 12,
"usual_level": 6,
"above_usual": 6
},
{
"insurer": "Insurer S",
"last_6_weeks": 9,
"usual_level": 6,
"above_usual": 3
},
{
"insurer": "Insurer Q",
"last_6_weeks": 5,
"usual_level": 2,
"above_usual": 3
}
]
},
"insurers_with_a_rise": 11,
"biggest_single_insurer": {
"insurer": "Insurer W",
"above_usual": 6
}
},
{
"rank": 4,
"state": "Madhya Pradesh",
"vehicle_class": "private car",
"measure": "claims",
"direction": "up",
"last_6_weeks": 61,
"usual_level": 48,
"change_pct": 26,
"how_unusual": "normal variation",
"alert": false,
"period": "24 August 2026 to 4 October 2026",
"drivers": {
"claim_type": [
{
"claim_type": "own damage",
"last_6_weeks": 54,
"usual_level": 41,
"above_usual": 13
},
{
"claim_type": "third party",
"last_6_weeks": 7,
"usual_level": 6,
"above_usual": 1
}
],
"insurer": [
{
"insurer": "Insurer Y",
"last_6_weeks": 7,
"usual_level": 2,
"above_usual": 5
},
{
"insurer": "Insurer D",
"last_6_weeks": 4,
"usual_level": 2,
"above_usual": 2
},
{
"insurer": "Insurer M",
"last_6_weeks": 3,
"usual_level": 1,
"above_usual": 2
}
]
},
"insurers_with_a_rise": 9,
"biggest_single_insurer": {
"insurer": "Insurer Y",
"above_usual": 5
}
},
{
"rank": 5,
"state": "Jharkhand",
"vehicle_class": "two-wheeler",
"measure": "policies issued",
"direction": "down",
"last_6_weeks": 462,
"usual_level": 535,
"change_pct": 14,
"how_unusual": "very unusual",
"alert": false,
"period": "17 August 2026 to 27 September 2026",
"drivers": {
"cover_type": [
{
"cover_type": "third party only",
"last_6_weeks": 202,
"usual_level": 239,
"below_usual": 37
},
{
"cover_type": "comprehensive",
"last_6_weeks": 234,
"usual_level": 262,
"below_usual": 28
},
{
"cover_type": "own damage only",
"last_6_weeks": 26,
"usual_level": 34,
"below_usual": 8
}
],
"insurer": [
{
"insurer": "Insurer K",
"last_6_weeks": 16,
"usual_level": 43,
"below_usual": 27
},
{
"insurer": "Insurer Y",
"last_6_weeks": 23,
"usual_level": 37,
"below_usual": 14
},
{
"insurer": "Insurer P",
"last_6_weeks": 35,
"usual_level": 46,
"below_usual": 11
}
]
},
"insurers_with_a_fall": 15,
"biggest_single_insurer": {
"insurer": "Insurer K",
"below_usual": 27
},
"held_back": [
{
"insurer": "Insurer K",
"file": "September policies file",
"rows_held_back_in_state": 24,
"up_to_this_many_in_this_movement": 17,
"insurer_shortfall": 27,
"meaning": "likely missing data, not lost sales"
}
]
}
],
"alerts": 1,
"rto_detail": false
}Biggest changes
| # | State | Vehicle class | Measure | Last 6 weeks | Usual level | Change | How unusual | Alert |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Telangana | Two-wheeler | Claims | 77 | 46 | +68% | Very unusual | alert |
| 2 | Haryana | Two-wheeler | Policies issued | 786 | 869 | -10% | Unusual | watch rows held back |
| 3 | Madhya Pradesh | Two-wheeler | Claims | 116 | 96 | +20% | Normal variation | no |
| 4 | Madhya Pradesh | Private car | Claims | 61 | 48 | +26% | Normal variation | no |
| 5 | Jharkhand | Two-wheeler | Policies issued | 462 | 535 | -14% | Very unusual | watch rows held back |
Ranked by how unusual the change is and how many claims or policies it involves, so a big swing in a small group does not push out a real one. One movement per state and vehicle class. Policy figures run one week behind claims. Policies come only from the monthly files. Claims are counted by the date they were reported, and the last few days come from an early claims feed assumed for the demo. An alert needs a very unusual change. For claims, policies issued and premium written, it must also stand out against the 8 weeks before.
Select a movement
Alerts and outcomes
Telangana two-wheeler claims up 68%
Very unusual for this time of year, and also high against the 8 weeks before. 24 August to 4 October 2026.
Why only IIB sees this. The rise is spread across 13 insurers. The biggest single insurer has 5 extra claims, so no single insurer is likely to notice. IIB sees all 25 together.
What it could mean. Two-wheeler theft claims in Telangana are about 6 times the usual level, 19 against about 3. This could be organised theft or fraud. It needs checking.
Suggested next step. Refer it to IIB's fraud monitoring team and ask the insurers involved for the claim files. Suggested owner: Motor team.
Each outcome is saved with the role and time. This record shows which kinds of alert lead to action. It is how IIB learns which alerts to trust. Today a person decides every step.
Outcome history
No outcomes recorded yet.